Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 29.788825 32.900556 36.355751 40.507473 45.402071 51.041621 58.109116
2025-07-20 24.891208 28.931767 33.786053 40.161757 48.495841 59.295543 74.847974
2025-07-27 21.890738 26.452433 32.280068 40.513965 52.288011 69.309331 97.535014
2025-08-03 19.461523 24.209662 30.566105 40.082668 54.747422 78.104223 122.469011
2025-08-10 17.682899 22.522464 29.256652 39.849713 57.296311 87.733427 154.137114
2025-08-17 16.379490 21.291722 28.362167 39.990367 60.370686 99.263801 197.704128
2025-08-24 15.204346 20.091472 27.322552 39.665813 62.494662 109.761281 248.369232
2025-08-31 14.242007 19.092638 26.447116 39.430552 64.677192 121.279037 315.484985
2025-09-07 13.401748 18.190958 25.608474 39.100405 66.564038 132.996824 401.745670
2025-09-14 12.726035 17.477503 24.986961 39.046851 68.997370 147.393923 530.768884
2025-09-21 12.076171 16.748782 24.260832 38.678834 70.644414 160.602755 695.110535
2025-09-28 11.845358 16.662393 24.600759 40.405304 77.638555 195.332101 1204.967004
2025-10-05 11.293076 16.028821 23.958047 40.126152 79.801858 216.020924 1823.154108
2025-10-12 10.838317 15.525800 23.503918 40.184266 82.949883 244.140760 3219.742810
2025-10-19 10.489083 15.173848 23.288828 40.724781 87.673954 285.357433 7924.289176
2025-10-26 10.055924 14.650038 22.709609 40.375737 89.725774 316.611301 22335.893108
2025-11-02 9.678750 14.198317 22.226946 40.179381 92.243869 355.309763 208893.767159
2025-11-09 9.373756 13.852494 21.915929 40.339878 96.038712 410.524699 NaN
2025-11-16 9.039142 13.434753 21.431913 40.019361 98.131939 459.039231 NaN
2025-11-23 8.738687 13.060841 21.005366 39.784750 100.516968 517.981351 NaN
2025-11-30 8.449649 12.692010 20.561970 39.451918 102.480072 580.954782 NaN
2025-12-07 8.207797 12.395705 20.243005 39.398434 105.591593 671.342661 NaN
2025-12-14 7.951474 12.060439 19.821729 39.025865 107.322047 754.779789 NaN